Understanding Aviator
Understanding Aviator: The Mathematics Behind the Crash Game Understanding Aviator: The Mathematics Behind the Crash Game By Tlokotsi Potloane Aviator is a crash betting game where a multiplier increases from 1.00x upward until it suddenly crashes. Your goal is to cash out before the crash. Rule: Cash out before crash = win. Fail = lose bet. Core Probability Model $$ P(M \ge x) = \frac{1}{x} $$ This means the probability that the multiplier reaches at least x is 1/x. Example Probabilities Multiplier Probability 1.5x 66.6% 2x 50% 3x 33% 10x 10% 100x 1% Distribution Formula $$ M = \frac{1}{U} $$ Where U is a random number between 0 and 1. $$ P(M \ge x) = P\left(\frac{1}{U} \ge x\right) = P(U \le \frac{1}{x}) = \frac{1}{x} $$ Expected Value $$ EV = P(win)(x - 1) + P(loss)(-1) $$ $$ EV = \frac{1}{x}(x - 1) - \left(1 - \frac{1}{x}\right) $$ $$ EV = 0 $$ Meaning: Fair game before house edge. House Edge $$ P(M \ge x...